ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - July 6, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - July 6, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• NATO Members Agree to Provide Ukraine With EUR 40 Billion in Military Aid in 2025
• Ukraine in Talks to Replace Russian Gas Transiting Ukraine with Azeri Volumes
• China and Russia Reportedly Jointly Developing Drones

NATO Members Agree to Provide Ukraine With EUR 40 Billion in Military Aid in 2025

NATO member states have agreed to provide Ukraine with EUR 40 billion (USD 43 billion) in military assistance in 2025. This comes after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg asked member states to provide Ukraine EUR 40 billion per year. Stoltenberg's initiative is likely part of NATO efforts to continue aiding Ukraine in the event Donald Trump wins the United States 2024 presidential election.

Ukraine in Talks to Replace Russian Gas Transiting Ukraine with Azeri Volumes

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine is in talks to replace Russian gas volumes transiting Ukrainian with gas from Azerbaijan in 2025. Ukraine acts as a transit country for Russian gas that flows through key pipelines spanning much of Ukraine. While most European countries halted imports of Russian gas after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, several states such as Austria continue to import significant Russian volumes. The agreement that covers Russian gas transit through Ukraine is set to expire at the end of 2024 and Ukraine has repeatedly warned it would not renew the deal. However, if Ukraine ends this agreement without an alternative, such a move could cause energy prices in Europe to spike. Replacing Russian volumes with Azeri supplies could help gas continue flowing into Europe and avoid significant price increases.

China and Russia Reportedly Jointly Developing Drones

Chinese and Russian companies are reportedly developing an attack drone similar to the Iranian Shahed drone that Russia frequently deploys in Ukraine. A source cited anonymous European officials who said Chinese and Russian firms held discussions in 2023 to develop their own version of the Shahed, and began testing a prototype in early 2024. China's active involvement in development and production of weapons for Russia would mark a significant expansion of Beijing's support for Russia. Western officials have repeatedly warned Beijing against providing Russia weapons and may threaten to impose sanctions in response to the joint drone program.