ZeroFox Intelligence July 2024 Geopolitical Brief

Product Serial: B-2024-07-05a

TLP:CLEAR

Events in Europe remain the primary focus of the ZeroFox Intelligence July 2024 Geopolitical Brief. While Germany finishes up with the EURO 2024 soccer tournament, France prepares for important second-round elections and then the Paris Olympics, which are taking place at a complicated geopolitical moment for France. Elsewhere, Houthi rebels have escalated their attacks and effectiveness on international shipping, promising continued supply chains for at least several more months. China will also be hosting its most important yearly policy meeting in July, where new efforts to protect Chinese industries from Western trade sanctions will likely emerge. In Latin America, Venezuelan elections will likely have international implications. President Maduro is likely unwilling to countenance elections that threaten his power, which makes it very likely that the international community will again refuse to recognize his government. In Kenya, President William Ruto's presidency is threatened by an endogenous protest movement.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

For the most up-to-date list of ZeroFox’s Intelligence Requirements, please visit:

https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

Link to Download

View the full report here.

Key Findings

Despite achieving concessions from the Kenyan government on avoiding tax increases, further protests are likely which threaten the leadership of President Ruto.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is very likely to interfere in the late July elections, which increases the probability that the international community will not recognize the results.
A continued low level of fighting in Gaza is more likely in the short term than a new war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Houthi rebels have escalated their attacks and effectiveness on international shipping, promising continued supply chains for at least several more months. ● China’s coast guard has become increasingly aggressive in targeting its neighbors over territorial disputes.
China’s Third Plenum will likely see economic stimulus to boost the struggling economy as well as new efforts to protect Chinese industries from Western trade sanctions; however, major changes that please international investors are unlikely.
The British elections saw the ruling conservatives lose power to the Labour party, but the bigger political development could involve smaller parties hoping to establish a footprint.
The French elections look likely to result in an embarrassing loss for President Macron, but the expected political paralysis could benefit him in the long run.
Security forces are concerned about terror attacks on the Paris Olympics, while the French public is largely disillusioned with hosting the games.