ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - July 14, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - July 14, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• Reformist Candidate Wins Iran Elections, While the New Popular Front Cluster Looks to Win the French Election
• Netherlands to Supply Ukraine F-16s "Without Delay"
• Japan and the Philippines Sign Defense Pact to Counter China

Reformist Candidate Wins Iran Elections, While the New Popular Front Cluster Looks to Win the French Election

Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian secured victory in Iran’s runoff presidential election, defeating hard-liner Saeed Jalili. Pezeshkian's campaign has promised improved relations with the West and a relaxed approach to the mandatory headscarf law, addressing years of sanctions and protests affecting Iran. Meanwhile, in France, a left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, has won the most parliament seats through tactical voting in the second round, effectively blocking Marine Le Pen’s far-right party. France will probably face political uncertainty as no party achieved an absolute majority.

Netherlands to Supply Ukraine F-16s "Without Delay"

On July 8, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp announced the Netherlands will send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine "without delay" after his government approved the export licenses last week. However, Veldkamp did not offer a specific timeline for delivery. NATO countries have promised to provide Ukraine with about 65 F-16s, of which the Netherlands pledged to deliver 24. The F-16s are unlikely to unilaterally change the tide of the war in Ukraine, however, they should provide Ukraine with more advanced strike and air defense capabilities.

Japan and the Philippines Sign Defense Pact to Counter China

Japan and the Philippines have signed a defense pact that permits each other's forces to participate in joint-defense drills and likely paves the way for a mutual defense pact. The agreement is significant because Japan and the Philippines are traditional geopolitical adversaries dating back to Japan's occupation of the Philippines. However, they have likely agreed to mend ties because of their mutual distrust of China, which has territorial disputes with both nations. Japan, under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has taken significant steps to increase the defense budget and has sided with several other countries in the region that have similar territorial disputes with China. With this alliance, China faces an unbroken link of Western-backed countries from Japan to Australia. These countries have all increased their defense spending based on a mutual distrust of China. The closer military ties could lead to retaliation from China, which has clashed repeatedly with Filipino ships in recent months. China could also suspend trade agreements with its neighbors who side with Japan or the United States, hoping to pressure them economically.