ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - July 20, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - July 20, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• Gradual Rollout of Foreign Security Forces, with Offensive Operations Against Gangs to Begin Shortly in Haiti
• Ukrainian Sanctions Halt Lukoil Deliveries to Hungary, Slovakia
• Slovenia and Azerbaijan Sign MOU to Expand Cooperation in Energy Sector

Gradual Rollout of Foreign Security Forces, with Offensive Operations Against Gangs to Begin Shortly in Haiti

Interim Prime Minister Gary Conille announced a state of emergency in 14 areas of Haiti controlled by gangs. Conille's announcement came as the second tranche of 200 Kenyan police officers arrived in the capital, Port-au-Prince. For now, the Kenyan forces are patrolling parts of the city not controlled by gangs, but offensive operations are likely as more officers arrive from Bangladesh, Benin, Chad, the Bahamas, and Barbados. Violence that reached a nadir in April when gangs stormed key areas of the capital in anticipation of the troops arrival has subsided since June. However, gangs still control huge portions of the country and are likely to put up a fierce resistance when offensive operations begin. The uptick in violence will likely result in mass casualties, arrests, and possibly outward migration. Conille is representing Haiti on an interim basis, as Haiti has been unable to hold elections for years and all politicians have seen their terms expire. New elections are due for early 2026, while security forces are supposed to pave the way for secure elections in the meantime.

Ukrainian Sanctions Halt Lukoil Deliveries to Hungary, Slovakia

The governments of Hungary and Slovakia confirmed Russian oil giant Lukoil halted shipments to both countries due to recently introduced Ukrainian sanctions. In June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed restrictions that effectively banned Lukoil from using Ukraine as a transit hub. These restrictions only affected Lukoil operations; Russian oil shipments from other providers continue to flow through Ukraine. However, long-term disruptions stemming from the Lukoil restrictions may hinder industrial operations in Hungary and Slovakia. Both countries have said they are working through various diplomatic channels to resolve the issue.

Slovenia and Azerbaijan Sign MOU to Expand Cooperation in Energy Sector

Azerbaijan and Slovenia signed a memorandum of understanding to expand cooperation in the gas sector. This agreement comes as European Union leaders are considering Azeri gas as a replacement for Russian volumes transiting Ukraine. The agreement that regulates the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine via the Druzhba pipeline is set to expire at the end of 2024. Ukraine has repeatedly warned it will not renew the agreement, which would effectively halt Russian gas deliveries to Europe. To resolve the issue EU leaders are considering encouraging Ukraine to allow Azeri gas supplies to replace Russian volumes through the Druzhba pipeline, thereby ensuring steady gas supplies continue to flow into the EU.