ZeroFox Intelligence September 2024 Geopolitical Brief

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Although possible, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the next several weeks is unlikely, which means international shipping and oil prices will remain volatile. *Social unrest linked to France’s government formation is very likely in September 2024. *Germany’s ruling political parties are likely to be defeated by a wide margin in a series of September state elections. Despite immigration being the primary campaign issue, Germany’s sluggish economy is the bigger long-term threat to the country. *Ukraine’s unprecedented incursion into Russia will likely heavily influence its wartime strategy. Russian retaliation encompassing a range of hybrid measures is likely in the coming weeks.