ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - November 1, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - November 1, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• ZeroFox Intelligence November 2024 Geopolitical Brief
• Canada Accuses India’s Home Minister of Planning Foreign Assassinations
• Ukraine to Mobilize 160,000 Additional Troops

ZeroFox Intelligence November 2024 Geopolitical Brief

Several Latin American states (led by Peru and Bolivia) are experiencing protest movements reminiscent of the 2019 indefinite protest period, which led to widespread changes in political leadership months later. European authorities are growing increasingly concerned that Russia and Iran are financing criminal groups to carry out acts of sabotage and violence across Europe. The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia carries significant new security considerations for both Europe and the Korean Peninsula. Brazil will host the G20 Summit in mid-November; it is arguably the premier geopolitical forum in the world. However, major takeaways on key issues like war in Ukraine and the Middle East are unlikely with U.S. politics in flux.

Canada Accuses India’s Home Minister of Planning Foreign Assassinations

On October 31, 2024, Canadian authorities accused India’s Home Minister, Amit Shah, of planning foreign assassinations, including one that allegedly targeted a Canadian national in 2023. Ottawa did not provide evidence for the claim. Since mid-2023, relations between Canada and India have deteriorated amid allegations that Indian government officials were involved in plots to kill Sikh nationalists residing on foreign soil. India denies being directly involved but claims rogue low-level intelligence agents acting in cooperation with international organized crime groups may have taken part. The new allegations against Shah are a significant escalation in the dispute. Shah is commonly cited as the second-most powerful figure in India’s government behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Accusations that he planned or approved foreign assassinations imply that the schemes were issued directly from the top of India’s government. While India has yet to issue an official response, the accusation is certain to damage relations further. Bilateral trade has not been affected by the dispute, but this could change if further deterioration occurs.

Ukraine to Mobilize 160,000 Additional Troops

Ukrainian officials recently announced they plan to mobilize another 160,000 Ukrainian troops, which will bring force staffing levels to 85 percent. It will likely prove difficult for Ukraine to raise this figure, as many eligible military-aged men have already been drafted. There have also been reports of corruption or inefficiencies at many local recruitment centers, which will further complicate the call up. Ukrainian officials are likely well aware of these difficulties and expect to gather fewer than the 160,000 figure.