ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Russian Hybrid War Tactics Against Western Europe

Product Serial: B-2025-01-16b

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Brief, ZeroFox researchers provide an overview of the hybrid warfare techniques Russia has been utilizing across Europe alongside its more traditional military tactics in Ukraine and where they could target next.

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Executive Summary

With the January 15, 2025, accusation by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that Russia had planned terrorist attacks across the global aviation sector, there has been renewed focus on the global impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, the revelation is just one part of Russia’s aggressive hybrid warfare strategy using tactics like disinformation, the weaponization of energy resources, sabotage, and cyber campaigns to limit the effectiveness of military aid to Ukraine. As 2024 went on and a large, albeit delayed, U.S. aid package to Ukraine was approved, Russia began expanding its use of hybrid measures beyond its western periphery, where most states have strong links with Russia, further into Western Europe. A slew of important elections gave Russia opportunities to weaken and destabilize Europe by propping up and supporting candidates who favor ending military support for Ukraine. There was also a notable increase in other types of hybrid warfare, including a surge in acts of sabotage against critical infrastructure. This expansive use of hybrid measures is unlikely to slow down even if there is a positive settlement to the war in Ukraine. Europe remains deeply divided on how to address a variety of issues, including improving European Union (EU) economic competitiveness and increasing defense spending; it is in Russia’s interests to worsen these divisions. Because European states lack the unity to properly counter Russia’s hybrid measures, Russia is very likely to expand the use of such tactics in the coming year.