ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment Russia-Ukraine Forecast 2025

ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment - Russia-Ukraine Forecast 2025

Product Serial: A-2025-01-27a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Intelligence Assessment, ZeroFox researchers forecast developments in Russia's war in Ukraine, including the prospect of peace talks and the efforts cyber threat actors are making to complement Russia's battlefield initiatives.

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Key Findings

• The incoming Trump administration is likely to be one of the most consequential, yet unpredictable, influences on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2025.
• Neither Ukraine nor Russia likely have the military resources or capacity to win the war outright on the battlefield in 2025. As a result, the conflict is highly unlikely to see any strategic-level offensives that alter the course of the war.
• The Trump administration is likely to pursue diplomatic talks shortly after taking office to achieve a quick end to the conflict. Both Russia and Ukraine have indicated they would be open to such discussions, though numerous roadblocks may hinder the process.
• The state of its economy is highly likely to be Russia’s largest vulnerability in 2025, though President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to let the economy influence his strategy in Ukraine.
• Hacktivist groups will very likely seek to complement Russia’s battlefield gains and Ukraine’s manpower shortages with cyber campaigns, including distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks and coordinated hacks on military and private-sector targets