ZeroFox Intelligence February 2025 Geopolitical Brief

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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With the exception of short-lived tariffs on Colombia, the Trump administration has refrained from administering new tariffs; however that is likely to change starting on February 1, 2025.
Recent developments in artificial intelligence by Chinese company DeepSeek likely increase the possibility of harsher-than-anticipated tariffs on China, while at the same time limiting the possibility of tariffs on other regions.
The European Union (EU)’s push to increase the economic competitiveness of its businesses will likely coincide with a sharp reduction in regulations, increased defense spending, and efforts to develop advanced technology that could leave EU businesses vulnerable to cyberattacks.
A ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah looks likely to hold for the foreseeable future, but the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has a roughly equal chance of collapsing.
Ukraine is likely to have trouble obtaining economic and military support in the coming months as the United States pushes for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine and a number of key European allies hold elections.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has become increasingly important to global supply chains for clean and advanced technology, but a war in the mineral-producing region is very likely to continue.