ZeroFox Intelligence March 2025 Geopolitical Brief

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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U.S. tariffs are expected to start in March before progressing throughout April, very likely leading to supply chain disruptions.
The new U.S. administration has telegraphed its desire to end both Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war quickly. However, several powerful actors stand to lose from the security re-arrangements and will likely undercut U.S. aims.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas negotiated by the Biden administration is likely to continue into March 2025 but collapse before being fully implemented, with the United States and Israel likely to pursue alternatives.
The U.S. proposal to end Russia's war in Ukraine will likely include an implicit security guarantee for Ukraine, closer U.S-Russia ties, billions in new European Union (EU) defense spending, and a U.S. military focused on China.