What Next in the India-Pakistan Conflict

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - What Next in the India-Pakistan Conflict

Product Serial: F-2025-05-27a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash Report, ZeroFox researchers report on the military de-escalation between India and Pakistan and how India will likely seek to isolate Pakistan diplomatically instead.

Standing Intelligence Requirements

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https://cloud.zerofox.com/intelligence/advisories/14956

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Key Findings

• Tensions between India and Pakistan are likely to simmer in the short term, with sporadic violations of the ceasefire agreement across the northern and western border regions of India.
• In the event of future conflicts, India is likely to strike Pakistani government and military infrastructure rather than only remote terrorist infrastructure, as it has done in the past.
• India is very likely to use the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan as a weapon of conflict—or at least leverage it—in future relations with Pakistan. There is a roughly even chance that the IWT will become the cause of new escalations.
• India and Pakistan are likely to see developments in existing trade arrangements with each other and their trading partners in countries such as China, Turkey, and the United States.