ZeroFox Intelligence June 2025 Geopolitical Assessment

Monthly Geopolitical Report: June 2025

Geopolitical and Physical GEO

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Russia is pushing a military escalation strategy in its war with Ukraine, as Western states continue to urge the two countries to end the war diplomatically.
The Trump administration will very likely pursue alternative methods of imposing tariffs after a trade court blocked the majority of the tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump announced on April 2, 2025.
While the situation in Gaza is unsustainable, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to resist pressure to end the war with Hamas completely and instead seek alternative ways to continue the conflict at a low intensity.
The first-ever judicial elections in Mexico will very likely harm international investment, with elected judges more likely to be perceived as being influenced by criminal groups and politics.
Military conflict between India and Pakistan is unlikely in the short term; however, core issues remain that will manifest in hybrid forms of retaliation—like reducing shared water resources, trade bans, and cyberattacks—that risk escalating into armed conflict.