Fragile Ceasefire – SITREP #38: May 28, 2026

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #38 - Fragile Ceasefire - May 28, 2026

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on the U.S. blockade of the SoH and fragile peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

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The United States and Iran have likely reduced their negotiation gaps, making a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on ending the war more likely. Initial reports indicate that the latest draft MOU outlines a roadmap for a permanent end to the war and includes a 60-day window to implement a full peace deal and negotiate other issues. That window would almost certainly be extended.
As predicted in ZeroFox’s SITREP report dated April 23, 2026, the United States has likely adjusted its negotiating position to align closer with Iranian demands, led by moving away from an immediate mandate to denuclearize and instead pushing the topic until a later date. However, key differences remain, and a formal acknowledgement ending the war has yet to materialize, making a return to conflict unlikely but not improbable—especially if talks collapse or stall into June.
Global markets are reacting positively, suggesting deal prospects outweigh escalatory risks. However, the relative lack of economic pressure on the United States is likely delaying full support for the MOU, as it is likely leading to internal concerns that the deal is overly favorable to Iran.