Monthly Geopolitical Report July 2026

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: July 2026

Product Serial: A-2026-07-02a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• War in Iran has likely altered the shipping landscape permanently. Repeated closures of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) will almost certainly continue to erode customer confidence pertaining to goods shipped throughout the region.
• Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and its support for regional proxy groups such as Hezbollah will all but certainly be additional sticking points as talks aimed at peace in the region progress. An extension of the initial 60-day negotiation period agreed to in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran is all but certain.
• The Group of Seven (G7) concluded its annual summit with a public commitment to diversify trade networks away from China, which will very likely be followed by European Union (EU) efforts to address its growing trade imbalance with China. Recent data on trade between China and the United States and Japan very likely signals the forms Chinese retaliation will take.
• Ukraine continued to build military momentum in June, significantly escalating its attacks inside Russia. The shift is unlikely to compel Russia to end its war in the short term.
• Closely contested elections in parts of Latin America and political instability in several Eastern European nations are likely to trigger persistent social unrest throughout July. Pro-U.S. leaders in these countries will likely have difficulty enacting reforms around economic and security initiatives as a result.
• Rising anti-foreigner sentiment in South Africa threatens local business operations and poses a significant risk of regional boycotts targeting South African companies across the continent.