Ceasefire Unravels – SITREP #41: July 10, 2026

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #41 - Ceasefire Unravels - July 10, 2026

Product Serial: F-2026-07-10a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers cover how recent U.S.-Iran military escalations threaten the stability of the ongoing ceasefire despite continued diplomatic talks.

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Key Findings

• U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders have both declared that their ceasefire is over following a new series of U.S. airstrikes in response to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Despite this, President Trump stated that talks will continue, and ZeroFox assesses there is only a roughly even chance that the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has collapsed.
• Iran likely views irregular attacks on ships in the SoH—particularly those transiting near Oman—as central to gaining international recognition over its control of the strait.
• Iran will likely continue threatening to abandon negotiations to extract concessions from the United States.
• The broader uncertainty is very unlikely to end soon, and the most likely near-term scenario is a version of the pre-MOU ceasefire that breaks down periodically