Ceasefire Collapse Likely Temporary – SITREP #42: July 15, 2026

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - SITREP #42 - Ceasefire Collapse Likely Temporary - July 15, 2026

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers cover the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

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The ceasefire between the United States and Iran has effectively collapsed, with both sides re-instating mutual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) and resuming intense targeting mirroring that seen at the start of the war.
The drop in oil prices to pre-war levels over the last month likely contributed to the resumption in Iranian hostilities. Deteriorating economic conditions are therefore likely to coerce the United States to return to negotiations, while further military damage to Iran is likely to do the same. Even with a return to negotiations and a halt in the airstrikes, broader uncertainty is very unlikely to end; the most likely scenario in the near term is a version of the ceasefire that breaks down periodically.
An expansion of U.S. targeting to include Iranian civilian critical infrastructure, which was largely spared during the initial hostilities, is likely an indication that the U.S. calculus has shifted and the Trump administration is prepared for a more prolonged conflict.
Iran is likely to leverage its ability to elevate economic costs, through both blockades of the SoH and attacks on Gulf assets as it did before. Maintaining leverage over the key Middle Eastern industries that utilize the SoH is almost certainly part of Iran's strategy to end the conflict on terms it finds acceptable.