Monthly Geopolitical Report September 2026

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: September 2026

Geopolitical and Physical

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The U.S. strategy in the war with Iran will very likely shift from military targeting to economic warfare. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense pledge. The Trump administration is very likely supportive of this pact, as it creates conditions allowing the U.S.-allied states in the Middle East to assume greater military responsibility while the United States reduces its military commitments.
Both the United States and China have enacted a range of trade restrictions ahead of the September 24 summit between the U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. These measures are unlikely to derail the truce agreed to in October 2025 that halted the rapid tariff escalation between the two nations. Individually, the trade restrictions have likely been structured to maintain the truce by not causing immediate economic damage. However, they likely signal areas where the two sides will diverge more seriously in the coming years.
Air and drone strikes from Ukraine reached their highest levels of the war in the first week of August. These strikes have likely inspired Russia to respond with its highest rate of attacks since the war with Ukraine began in February 2022. Ukraine will likely need to continue making progress in its long-strike campaign. The Russians will likely try to reverse Ukrainian gains by taking advantage of its lack of missile defenses and escalating Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign to weaken European support for Ukraine.