ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - December 18, 2023

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - December 18, 2023

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Serbian Elections - A Domestic and Foreign Analysis
• Red Sea Attacks on International Shipping Continue
• New Government Announces Limits on Protests Ahead of First Major Anti-Government Protest

ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Serbian Elections - A Domestic and Foreign Analysis

Serbia held a parliamentary election on December 17, 2023, to choose the members of its legislative body, the National Assembly. It is likely the leaders of the current ruling coalition, the Srpska Napredna Stranka (the Serbian Progressive Party or SNS), will obtain approximately 40 percent of the vote—enough to remain the leading political force. The three mass shootings in May 2023 led to over four months of opposition protests and the creation of the Srbija Protiv Nasilja (Serbia Against Violence or SPN) coalition, which is currently SNS’ largest political opponent. In terms of foreign policy, tensions with Kosovo and Serbia balancing its relationship between the European Union (EU) and Russia have dominated the debate. This is unlikely to shift in the short to medium term. Serbia will highly likely continue carrying out limited EU-access reforms while maintaining strong political links to Russia and China. ZeroFox assesses that Serbia will highly likely continue to use political pressure to protect its ethnic minority in Kosovo and keep the Kosovo state within its sphere of influence.

Red Sea Attacks on International Shipping Continue

Yemeni Houthi rebels continue targeting cargo ships in the Red Sea with drone and missile attacks as the Israel-Hamas conflict continues. Since December 12, at least eight attacks on commercial vessels have been reported near the Houthi-controlled Bab al-Mandab Strait connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Houthi attacks previously targeted ships with purported direct links to Israeli businesses but beginning this week attacks widened to include any ships the Houthis suspected were bound for Israeli ports. Shipping data showed a Norwegian-flagged ship targeted on December 12 was actually bound for Italy, while ships targeted on December 14 and 15 were bound for Saudi Arabia. Targeting most often takes the form of missile and drone attacks, though some ships have been approached by skiffs impersonating the Yemeni Navy and ordering them to change course to Yemen. Successful attacks have so far caused only minor damage to targeted vessels and no casualties have been reported.

Argentina Announces Limits on Protests Ahead of First Major Anti-Government Protest

On December 20, 2023, left-wing protesters led by the anti-austerity grouping Polo Obrero will protest against the austerity policies of new President Javier Milei. Protesters are planning to gather in the Plaza de Mayo in the capital, Buenos Aires. Ahead of the protests, former presidential candidate and new Security Minister Patricia Bullrich announced security forces would disrupt any protests without a permit and escalate their force if necessary. Bullrich also said that protesters will pay the costs of security related to protests. Expect social unrest in the short term, not only against the protest restrictions but also as the austerity measures announced by Milei go into effect. The austerity measures, which include a sharp devaluation of the peso currency and budget cuts, will likely spike inflation in the short term and result in job losses. A crackdown by security forces could worsen the protests.