ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - May 13, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - May 13, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Russia Increases Use of Hybrid War Tactics After Aid to Ukraine
• Croatia’s Ruling Conservatives Embrace Far-Right Party in New Government
• Australia, Tuvalu Clarify Falepili Union Security Pact

ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Russia Increases Use of Hybrid War Tactics After Aid to Ukraine

The recently authorized U.S. military aid package to Ukraine is likely to empower Ukraine to stall Russia’s recent military gains. Russia began increasing its operational tempo on the battlefield soon after voting on the aid package began, probably in a bid to advance as far as possible before the promised aid reaches frontline positions. Russia will likely increase its aggressive hybrid war strategy using tactics like disinformation campaigns, the weaponization of energy resources, sabotage, and cyber campaigns to limit the effectiveness of military aid to Ukraine and force a repeat of battlefield conditions seen in the early part of 2024. These hybrid attacks will likely seek to influence elections in key Western nations by making support to Ukraine a primary wedge issue and exacerbate underlying societal fissures around continued financial and military support for Ukraine. Attacks on critical infrastructure, energy targets, and online targeting of U.S. and European elections and politicians will likely reach a crescendo ahead of major elections, especially the U.S. presidential election.

Croatia’s Ruling Conservatives Embrace Far-Right Party in New Government

On May 8, Croatia's ruling conservatives, led by the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), took a decisive step by forming a coalition with the far-right nationalist Homeland Movement, signaling a stark shift to the right as the European elections loom. The alliance came after weeks of political uncertainty following an inconclusive parliamentary vote. While the HDZ emerged as the most popular party, it lacked a clear majority to govern alone.

Australia, Tuvalu Clarify Falepili Union Security Pact

Australia and Tuvalu are meeting to discuss and clarify the terms of their security arrangement, the Falepili Union, which had controversially included a provision allowing Australia to veto Tuvalu making a pact with another country. An explanatory memorandum issued by the parties clarified that there is only a "narrow set of circumstances'' that would prompt such a veto, which experts understand as a reference to a potential Tuvalu-PRC agreement. Tuvalu currently recognizes Taiwan as the legitimate government of China. Australia also announced the provision of additional funds to Tuvalu totaling AUD 110 million. These include AUD 50 million for an undersea communications cable, AUD 19 million for coastal adaptation to combat climate change, and AUD 10 million in budgetary support. Additionally, the countries agreed that the resettlement pathway, which will provide 280 Australian visas to Tuvaluans per year, could be mutually adjusted.