ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - May 31, 2024

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - May 31, 2024

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• Preliminary South African Election Results Show Ruling ANC Party Losing Majority
• Political Assassinations in Mexico Ahead of General Elections
• ZeroFox Intelligence June 2024 Geopolitical Brief

Preliminary South African Election Results Show Ruling ANC Party Losing Majority

On May 30, preliminary election results showed the ruling African National Congress (ANC) losing its majority in the national election, but only 27 percent of the vote has been accounted for at the time of reporting. Election results will not be announced until June 2. However, initial results show the ANC with about 42 percent of the vote, the Democratic Alliance trailing in second at around 25 percent, the Economic Freedom Fighters Party obtaining 9 percent, and the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party at approximately 8 percent. If current trends continue, the ANC will need to form a coalition with other parties in order to form a majority in Parliament to elect the president and pass legislation. The ANC lost a significant amount of votes to the MK Party in KwaZulu-Natal Province and other areas so far following former President Jacob Zuma's recent backing of the party, and may also lose its majority in Gauteng Province.

Political Assassinations in Mexico Ahead of General Elections

Mexico will hold general elections for over 20,000 posts, including governors, congressmen, local representatives, and presidents. Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Morena) party is very likely to replace popular term-limited President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Violence has been rampant during the campaign, with 23 candidates killed during the campaign and 27,000 National Guard members deployed to reinforce security on election day.

ZeroFox Intelligence June 2024 Geopolitical Brief

The outcome of EU elections will likely see less legislation regarding climate change and human rights and more on improving the competitiveness of EU businesses. Haiti’s security situation has stabilized as aid has arrived in the run-up to a foreign intervention. German authorities are on high alert for terrorist attacks during the month-long Euro 2024 soccer tournament. Georgia forced through an unpopular law that brings the country closer to Russia. When G7 leaders meet in June, they will likely double down on efforts to fund Ukraine with frozen Russian assets and isolate China from the global economy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu very likely sees the extension of the conflict as crucial to remaining in office. Russian troops are attempting to gain as much Ukrainian territory as possible before Western aid arrives and likely freeze battle lines until 2025.