ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - January 28, 2025

ZeroFox Physical Security Intelligence Daily Brief - January 28, 2025

ZeroFox physical security experts collect, curate, and analyze information derived from open and proprietary sources for comprehensive context of the circumstances surrounding global events. Here is today’s daily roundup of major developments.

Brief Highlights

• ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment - Russia-Ukraine Forecast 2025
• CSTO To Reinforce Tajik-Afghan Border in 2025
• U.S. Briefly Imposes Tariffs on Colombian Imports

ZeroFox Intelligence Assessment - Russia-Ukraine Forecast 2025

The incoming Trump administration is likely to be one of the most consequential, yet unpredictable, influences on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2025. Neither Ukraine nor Russia likely have the military resources or capacity to win the war outright on the battlefield in 2025. As a result, the conflict is highly unlikely to see any strategic-level offensives that alter the course of the war. The Trump administration is likely to pursue diplomatic talks shortly after taking office to achieve a quick end to the conflict. Both Russia and Ukraine have indicated they would be open to such discussions, though numerous roadblocks may hinder the process. The state of its economy is highly likely to be Russia’s largest vulnerability in 2025, though President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to let the economy influence his strategy in Ukraine.

CSTO To Reinforce Tajik-Afghan Border in 2025

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will reportedly begin implementing a program to reinforce the Tajik-Afghan border in 2025. The CSTO is a Russian-led intergovernmental military alliance that includes six member countries, including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. These reports may indicate Russia is attempting to project influence in the Middle East and Central Asia, likely in response to Russia's loss of influence in Syria.

U.S. Briefly Imposes Tariffs on Colombian Imports

The United States briefly imposed 25 percent tariffs on Colombian imports, after Colombia refused to accept two planes of Colombian deportees. The tariffs were quickly removed on January 26, after Colombia agreed to continue accepting deportees without restrictions. The United States represents a key market for Colombian oil, gold, coffee, and flowers and the threat of 25 percent tariffs rising quickly to 50 percent likely caused Colombia to back down. The United States accounts for about one-third of Colombia's exports and similar threats could be applied to other Latin American states who rely on U.S. consumption to maintain the export driven economies, but who also have large illegal immigrant populations in the United States.