2025 Predictions
2026 Key Forecasts Report

Know the Threat. Outsmart the Attack.

The threat landscape is shifting fast. Your attack surface is expanding, and adversaries are moving even faster. GenAI lowers the barrier to entry, geopolitics fuels motivation, and the deep and dark web gives threat actors a marketplace to scale.

Understanding what comes next is no longer optional. This hub brings together the insights, briefings, and intelligence you need to prepare for the year ahead.

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The testing period is over. Threat actors are now building GenAI into their daily operations, from faster phishing kits to automated vulnerability scanning and malware that learns as it goes.

Key Takeaways

  • Throughout 2025, social engineering campaigns increasingly used deepfake audio, enabling threat actors to conduct real-time impersonation attacks and make vishing or phishing lures more convincing.
  • 86% of security leaders reported at least one AI-related incident in the past year, underscoring how quickly the threat has moved from potential to reality.
  • The increasing sophistication of AI-driven fraud schemes, as seen in the remote IT worker case earlier this year, highlights the need for a multi-layered approach to workforce security.

Threat actors aren't just using AI. They are shaping their entire approach around it.

GenAI at Scale

GenAI at Scale

Geopolitics and Cybercrime

Geopolitics and Cybercrime

Geopolitical conflict is very likely to shape the cyber threat landscape in 2026. Threat collectives are increasingly aligning with political causes or nation-state agendas, driving targeted attacks, influence operations, and activity spikes tied to global events.

Key Takeaways

  • Third-party involvement in breaches has nearly doubled year over year, rising from approximately 15% to 30%, underscoring how geopolitical pressure and supply-chain vulnerabilities intersect.
  • ZeroFox analysis found that coordinated narratives on social media fueled real-world mobilization among younger audiences, as seen in the Gen Z-driven protests tied to trending digital discourse—a sign of how online influence can quickly produce offline impact.
  • Influence campaigns are becoming more targeted and more precise, often spreading through coordinated narratives and amplified across social platforms and dark web channels.

The global stage is now a digital battlefield. Political tension fuels cyber activity, and cyber activity can influence political outcomes.

Ransomware and digital extortion (R&DE) incidents are expected to remain elevated. Professionalized ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) ecosystems, effective strains, and the specialization of affiliates will likely drive high attack volumes, especially in early 2026.

Key Takeaways

  • ZeroFox identified an average of533 incidents per monththroughout 2025, compared to an average of 388 per month during 2024—which was already a record-breaking year.
  • Manufacturing organizations are very likely to face the biggest threat from R&DE actors throughout 2026, continuing a trend observed across 2024 and 2025.
  • Ransomware targeting of North America-based organizations has remained on an upward trajectory since early 2022, likely due primarily to the increasing professionalization of DDW marketplaces, the efficacy of extortion collectives, and access brokers pursuing lucrative targets.
  • In parallel, the 2025 Verizon DBIR reported that ransomware appeared in 44% of all breaches, reinforcing its role as one of the most persistent and disruptive forces in cybercrime.

Ransomware shows no signs of slowing. As affiliates mature and marketplaces scale, extortion remains one of the most attractive and adaptable criminal business models heading into 2026.

Ransomware's Record Run

Ransomware's Record Run

Social Engineering Reimagined

Social Engineering Reimagined

Social engineering will almost certainly remain one of the most exploited vectors in 2026. AI-generated voice, video, text, and deepfake media enable threat actors to craft high-effort, highly targeted campaigns that bypass hardened technical defenses by going directly after people and trust.

  • AI-powered content generation significantly lowers the barrier to creating persuasive messages, enabling threat actors to scale social engineering campaigns across email, SMS, social platforms, and collaboration tools.
  • Sophisticated tools including voice cloning, synthetic media, and fake investment platforms are now used to sustain long-term scam relationshipstargeting both older and younger generations.
  • Phishing and pretexting via email remain the leading cause of breaches, accounting for 73% of incidents.

As AI enhances the believability and scalability of social engineering, people remain the easiest entry point and the most critical line of defense.

Deep and dark web (DDW) ecosystems will remain central to cybercrime in 2026, but the rules are shifting. Marketplaces are decentralizing, operators are adopting stronger operational security measures, and new affiliates are emerging as collectives splinter and reform.

  • Prominent threat collectives continued to fragment throughout 2025, reshaping alliances, affiliate programs, and marketplace structures—a trend expected to deepen in 2026.
  • Law enforcement crackdowns and geopolitical stressors are pushing threat actors to migrate from traditional DDW forums to encrypted apps, driving a more decentralized criminal ecosystem.
  • DDW marketplaces areincreasingly professionalized, with service desks, ticketing workflows, ratings, subscription tiers, and refund guarantees, mirroring legitimate commerce.

As DDW ecosystems evolve, threat actors gain new ways to collaborate, monetize access, and avoid detection, fueling a criminal economy that is becoming more agile.

Dark Web Dynamics

Dark Web Dynamics

How to Stay Ahead in 2026

01
Discover Exposure
Know your external risk surface. Continuously identify and monitor every domain, account, asset, and third-party connection tied to your organization. A unified approach to Digital Risk Protection and External Attack Surface Management helps you see the full picture and spot vulnerabilities before threat actors do.
02
Validate Threats
Know who's targeting you and how they operate. Use correlated threat intelligence to assess which adversaries have the motivation, capability, and access to impact your business. Track their TTPs, tools, narratives, and historical activity in relation to your organization, so you can focus resources where they have the most impact.
03
Disrupt Adversaries
Know how to stop attacks before they escalate. Leverage intelligence from the surface, deep, and dark web to identify planning, execution, and facilitation in motion. Disrupt malicious infrastructure, remove impersonations or fraudulent assets, and close down multi-channel attack paths before they cause damage.

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