ZeroFox Intelligence January 2024 Geopolitical Brief

ZeroFox Intelligence January 2024 Geopolitical Brief

Product Serial: B-2023-12-29a

TLP:CLEAR

In this monthly geopolitical brief ZeroFox researchers cover how Russia has gained a few strategic advantages in its war with Ukraine but likely lacks the quality to make a major breakthrough. Israel has yet to achieve its stated goals in the Israel-Hamas War, and that conflict will likely continue for several more months. Israel's other adversaries in the Middle East, led by the Houthis in Yemen, are emboldened to continue attacks. European security politics is highly likely to be dominated by anti-immigrant rhetoric, with security forces concerned that it will lead to violence in 2024. Lastly, an escalation in Chinese military maneuvers and anti-Taiwan rhetoric is highly likely in the event the incumbent party wins Taiwan's general elections in mid-January 2024.

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Key Findings

• A key Israeli judicial decision could also lead to political protests increasing across Israel.
• Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are likely to continue, despite a U.S. naval mission escorting container ships.
• Violence by attackers inspired by the Israel-Hamas War and immigration opponents is likely in Europe.
• Protests in Argentina over austerity measures are certain.
• China will increase military incursions near Taiwan and ramp up economic coercion in the event of a presidential victory for the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party.
• Taiwan’s opposition is likely to gain ground in parliament, which means the political status quo is likely to remain the same.
• A security crackdown against protesters in Argentina is likely to inspire activists to target the government.
• Jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have identified the politically weak Sahel area of Africa as their new operating base, allowing them to regroup after wars in the Middle East decimated their capabilities.
• The risk of a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana is low for now, but the prospect will increase the closer Venezuela gets to a general election.
• Guatemala's transfer of power in mid-January will likely be smooth, but efforts by the outgoing administration to limit the effectiveness of the new government will continue.
• Social unrest is likely in Senegal ahead of general elections as the outgoing administration attempts to limit the opposition.
• With Western aid to Ukraine stalled, Russia will seek to gain ground and debilitate Ukrainian infrastructure, while Ukraine will likely shift to defensive measures.