ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Israel and Iran at War

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Israel and Iran at War

Product Serial: F-2025-06-13b

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on Israel's targeting of Iran's nuclear weapons program and Iran's likely retaliation.

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Key Findings

• On June 12, 2025, Israel began what it said would be days of attacks against Iranian military and nuclear sites. In the coming days, there will likely be a comprehensive campaign to destroy Iranian air defense systems, communications networks, and offensive military capabilities, as well as its nuclear weapons program.
• Iran will almost certainly retaliate. In addition to drone attacks against Israel, Iran will likely also launch ballistic missiles, which are generally harder to intercept. Strikes from what is left of Iran’s proxies in Syria are also likely.
• Historically, Iran’s full retaliation to military aggression has not been immediate, and its options remain extremely limited due to the government’s conventional military weaknesses and degradations to its proxies.
• Western physical assets in the region are at risk of terror attacks, with embassies, military installations, international organizations, and Western companies in the region all being potential targets. In addition, the assets of oil companies, financial services, and telecommunications are likely targets for cyberattacks, which allows Iran plausible deniability.
• The Middle Eastern oil industry is particularly vulnerable, as Iran has demonstrated an ability to impact the industry’s operations; there is a roughly even chance Iran will block oil supply through the strategic Strait of Hormuz (SoH).