ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Israel-Iran War Updates

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Israel-Iran War Updates

Product Serial: F-2025-06-20a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on efforts to destroy what remains of Iran's nuclear weapons program either by the U.S. joining Israel's military campaign or leading a negotiated settlement.

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Key Findings

• Israel has likely inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military capabilities so far, but its success against the country’s nuclear facilities has been more limited.
• Comments from both U.S. and Israeli government leaders suggest the conflict could move beyond destroying the nuclear weapons program to their greater involvement with the aim of changing the Iranian government. However, as long as the * United States avoids joining the conflict, Israel will unlikely be able to fully destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
• The United States has moved military assets in the region, which, in addition to directly supporting the Israeli campaign, could also be used to disincentivize greater Iranian military action against both U.S. positions in Iraq and allied positions in places like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as the closing of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH).
• The Iranian government remains secure in power, likely precluding retaliatory measures beyond those directly impacting Israel.
• There is a roughly even chance of a negotiated end to the remaining parts of Iran’s nuclear weapons program not already destroyed by Israel that precludes U.S. military involvement while preserving the Iranian government.