ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire Established

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire Established

Product Serial: F-2025-06-24a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers report on a recently established Israel-Iran ceasefire brokered by the U.S. and Qatar, as well as ongoing reports of its violation.

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Key Findings

• In the late evening of Monday, June 23, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire.”
• Approximately two hours after the ceasefire was due to begin, Israel claimed to have detected a missile launch emanating from Iran—an action that would have been in violation of Iran’s initial 12-hour ceasefire period.
• Despite initially bellicose statements from Israeli officials and explosions reported in Tehran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Israel had refrained from retaliation.
• As of the writing of this report, the integrity of the ceasefire is unclear and fast-changing, though there is a very likely chance that the Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. governments perceive a bilateral ceasefire to be mutually beneficial.
• However, a likely chance remains that hostilities will resume within the coming weeks, exacerbated by the presence of numerous pro-Iranian parties in the region that have historically perceived Israeli and U.S. assets as viable targets.