Monthly Geopolitical Assessment July 2025

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: July 2025

Product Serial: A-2025-07-03a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• The military escalation by Russia against Ukraine is likely to continue in July, making a diplomatic solution to the war less likely; European Union (EU) military support to Ukraine is therefore likely to increase as U.S. assistance remains muted.
• Despite a ceasefire between Israel-Iran, further military conflict is likely as Iranian threats to Israel remain, and U.S. assets in the region are more likely targets since their entrance into the conflict.
• The United States is likely to resume reciprocal tariffs globally following the expiration of the July 9 tariff suspension but at lower levels than initially proposed on April 2.
• Social and economic unrest is very likely in Thailand after the monarchy-military alliance stepped in to suspend Prime Minister Shinawatra.
• France is due to present its 2026 budget in mid-July; while unlikely, similar austerity budgets have brought down several recent governments, leading to political paralysis.