Monthly Geopolitical Assessment August 2025

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: August 2025

Product Serial: A-2025-08-01a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• Russia is likely to continue escalating its military operations in Ukraine beyond the U.S. deadline.
• Political pressure from Western states for Israel to end the Israel-Hamas war is unlikely to be successful unless the United States joins in; therefore, stasis in the conflict is likely.
• The non-tariff investment commitments from the likes of the European Union (EU), South Korea, and Japan reflect U.S. policy priorities to keep those states under the U.S. defense, technology, and energy umbrella at the direct expense of Russian energy and Chinese technology.
• The next EU budget will likely feature cuts to the agricultural sector and increased investment in the "competitiveness” of EU businesses to make them less dependent on foreign technology and defense products, which is reflected in the lopsided EU-U.S. trade agreement.
• There has been an uptick in the detention of foreigners—including U.S. nationals—in China.
• Political and security crises in Bolivia, Pakistan, Sudan, and Thailand will likely continue for many months.