Monthly Geopolitical Assessment September 2025

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: September 2025

Product Serial: A-2025-08-28a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• Nationwide social unrest is very likely in France, triggered either by governmental collapse or large anti-government protests
• Russia is likely looking to continue its war in Ukraine without further U.S. tariffs on its leading trade partners and to avoid a ceasefire that would more likely benefit Ukraine.
• After nearly six months of tariff uncertainty, there is finally a slowdown in tariff-related supply chain disruptions as U.S. trade policy takes a clearer form.
• U.S. military deployments to counter transnational drug cartels in Latin America over the coming months are likely. These are predicated on an assessment that other global security threats to the United States have lessened and that LATAM regional governments are likely incapable of handling the threat, making drug cartels the leading U.S. national security priority for the foreseeable future.
• U.S. tariffs on India are influencing efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. They also play a role in the ongoing tariff-related discussions between the United States and China, as well as any potential retaliatory tariff response from other BRICS nations.