ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Protest and Government Collapse Likely in France

ZeroFox Intelligence Flash Report - Protest and Government Collapse Likely in France

Product Serial: F-2025-09-05a

TLP:CLEAR

In this Flash report, ZeroFox researchers discuss the upcoming budget negotiations in France, which have sparked widespread protests and are likely to bring down another French administration.

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Key Findings

• French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s government is almost certain to fall on September 8 over budgetary disputes.
• Bayrou’s unpopular budget proposals have spurred a movement that is planning massive nationwide protests starting September 10. Political and social unrest around these demonstrations is expected, but the size and severity of the protests will likely be impacted by whether Bayrou’s budget passes.
• If Prime Minister Bayrou is forced to resign, he will be the third French prime minister removed since 2023, highlighting France’s apparent inability to meaningfully address major domestic and international political issues.
• The political dynamics that created this paralysis are not expected to change for the foreseeable future. Therefore, further short-lived governments are likely, leaving France vulnerable to social unrest.