ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Increasing Violations of NATO Airspace Threaten Wider War

ZeroFox Intelligence Brief - Increasing Violations of NATO Airspace Threaten Wider War

Product Serial: B-2025-09-26a

TLP:CLEAR

In this intelligence brief, ZeroFox researchers report on recent violations of NATO airspace by suspected Russian drones and aircraft and how it likely represents a wider risk of hybrid warfare between Russia and NATO's European members.

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Key Findings

• Over the past several weeks, NATO allies have reported an increase in Russian violations of their airspace, as well as suspicious Russian flight patterns in international territory close to Allied states. The majority of these incidents took place in the Baltic region.
• The airspace violations likely serve mutually beneficial goals under the umbrellas of reconnaissance (probing NATO defenses) and signaling the possibility of direct conflict with Russia.
• NATO held emergency consultations under Article 4 twice and began work to integrate NATO air and ground defenses on its eastern flank. European leaders have also increasingly discussed seizing Russian assets and possibly directing military support to Ukraine.
• Russian leaders have denied responsibility for any airspace violations and have warned NATO that asset seizures or direct military aid to Ukraine would constitute an act of war.