Monthly Geopolitical Assessment October 2025

October 1, 2025|by Alpha Team

Geopolitical and Physical

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Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted a U.S.-backed, 20-point plan for ending the Israel-Hamas war, it remains unlikely that this development will lead to an end to the fighting in the near term.
Russia’s military activities in Ukraine will likely continue spilling over into NATO territory. Therefore, European leaders are increasingly discussing seizing Russian assets and more direct military engagement against Russia, which has threatened all-out war if they do so.
Following Indonesia’s protests and Nepal’s “Generation Z” (Gen Z) uprising, protest movements around the world have aligned with these causes. Madagascar’s government has since fallen, and further bouts of Gen Z protests are very likely across the globe.
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of the 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Meeting at the end of October. Some breakthroughs on bilateral issues like tariffs and TikTok are likely, but a complete resolution to trade issues is very unlikely. Elements from China’s 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan released in October are more likely to dictate relations between the two countries.
Key emerging markets in Latin America and Africa are due to hold elections in October.

Tags: global, tlp:clear, geo-political, all industries