Monthly Geopolitical Assessment November 2025

Monthly Geopolitical Assessment: November 2025

Product Serial: A-2025-10-30a

TLP:CLEAR

Standing Intelligence Requirements

Geopolitical and Physical

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Key Findings

• The United States is very likely reducing its military footprint in Europe, while it increases troops in Latin America.
• Military strikes inside Venezuela are very likely for the remainder of 2025. The strikes will very likely be focused on alleged government-sponsored drug-trafficking targets. Given the government's supposed role in drug trafficking, there is a roughly even chance the strikes will be perceived as aiming to topple the Venezuelan government.
• U.S.-China relations are likely to remain negative despite the relatively peaceful settlement reached in South Korea in late October, with both sides restricting each other's access to advanced technology and critical minerals over the coming years.
• Full compliance with the Israel-Hamas ceasefire remains unlikely due to opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state and Hamas disarmament.
• While recent elections in Africa are likely to trigger only small bouts of social unrest, the wider continent is extremely vulnerable to disruptive Gen Z protests because of the political and economic disparities between an aging ruling elite and the large young populations they govern.