Flash Report: Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire Established

Key Findings

• In the late evening of Monday, June 23, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire.”
• Approximately two hours after the ceasefire was due to begin, Israel claimed to have detected a missile launch emanating from Iran—an action that would have been in violation of Iran’s initial 12-hour ceasefire period.
• Despite initially bellicose statements from Israeli officials and explosions reported in Tehran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Israel had refrained from retaliation.
• As of the writing of this report, the integrity of the ceasefire is unclear and fast-changing, though there is a very likely chance that the Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. governments perceive a bilateral ceasefire to be mutually beneficial.
• However, a likely chance remains that hostilities will resume within the coming weeks, exacerbated by the presence of numerous pro-Iranian parties in the region that have historically perceived Israeli and U.S. assets as viable targets.

Details

A bilateral ceasefire between Iran and Israel brokered by the United States and Qatar has reportedly been violated by the launch of further missiles by Iran toward Israel, though Iranian officials have denied these allegations.¹ Details surrounding the integrity of an announced ceasefire remain scarce as of the writing of this report, but Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a statement vowing to “respond forcefully.”² 

The ceasefire announcement follows approximately 12 days of hostilities between Iran and Israel, during which hundreds of air-to-surface missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, and drones have been launched. 

• Initial Israeli attacks targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production facilities, and several areas in central Tehran.³ Targeting soon widened to include senior military and government personnel, as well as military infrastructure—particularly air defense systems and missile launchers. The resulting dominance of Iranian air space achieved by the Israeli Air Force led to significantly increased freedom of maneuver and a notably reduced risk of retaliation from Iran.⁴
• The Iranian response—some of which has reportedly involved the use of the “Kheibar Shekan” multi-warhead ballistic missile, one of Iran’s advanced long-range weapons—has targeted Israeli national infrastructure such as airports and scientific research facilities.⁵ Iran’s ability to conduct further strikes was almost certainly severely degraded by Israeli military operations, resulting in lower-scale attacks as the conflict continued.⁶

The United States joined the conflict on June 21, 2025, three days after President Trump initially announced the possibility was being considered.⁷ 

• In collaboration with the Israeli government, the U.S. military led an operation codenamed “Midnight Hammer.” The operation utilized submarine-launched ballistic missiles, as well as multiple B-2 stealth bombers that departed from the U.S. state of Missouri earlier on the same morning.
• The strikes targeted three Iranian nuclear facility sites: the Natanz Nuclear Facility, the Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant, and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre.⁸

During a press conference following the strikes, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Craine and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth praised the operation's precision, while conceding that a battle damage assessment (BDA) is still pending.⁹ Meanwhile, President Trump stated that the operation had “totally obliterated” the nuclear sites during his White House address.¹⁰

The initial Iranian response to the U.S. military action included Iranian state television announcements detailing further missile strikes against Israeli targets, which were followed by retaliatory Israeli strikes.¹¹ The Iranian government also condemned the United States’ involvement and stated its intent to retaliate, prompting U.S. military bases in the Middle East to pre-emptively adopt a heightened security posture.¹²

• On Monday, June 23, 2025, unverified reporting from media outlets and social media alleged that an unspecified U.S. military base in Syria had been attacked by mortar fire by an unnamed threat.¹³ No further information was available at the time of this writing, but sources suggest this was likely carried out by pro-Iranian forces in the region.¹⁴
• That same day, unverified social media reporting claimed that several explosions had been observed in close proximity to a U.S. military base located in Qatar. The reporting alleged that Iran had launched six rockets towards the base, resulting in the activation of U.S. air defense systems.¹⁵

In the days following the strike on June 21, 2025, U.S. government officials continued advising Iran to re-enter discussions in pursuit of a ceasefire, with President Trump warning Iranian leaders that any retaliation against U.S. assets would be met with “force far greater than what was witnessed tonight [Saturday evening].”¹⁶

In the late evening of Monday, June 23, 2025, President Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a complete and total ceasefire.¹⁷

• Despite this announcement, a statement by the Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi seemingly rejected any formal agreement “until Israeli forces halt military actions by 04:00 (GMT).”¹⁸ Shortly after this post, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that fighting had continued right until the deadline set but that hostilities had ended for the time being.¹⁹

As described by President Trump, the ceasefire was set to start on June 24, 2025, around 00:00 (EDT)—first with 12 hours of military inaction by Iran and then followed by inaction by Israel’s military for the next 12 hours, allowing both sides to complete any already-in-progress missions. During each country’s 12-hour ceasefire period, the other country was to remain peaceful; after a total of 24 hours, the 12-day war would conclude, and further hostilities would cease.²⁰

Approximately two hours after the ceasefire was due to begin, Israel claimed to have detected a missile launch emanating from Iran—an action that would have been in violation of Iran’s initial 12-hour ceasefire. Information surrounding the number and type of missiles, likely intended targets, and the time of launch differs greatly. Despite initially bellicose statements from Israeli officials and explosions reported in Tehran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Israel had refrained from retaliation.^21,22

• Reporting surrounding the alleged ceasefire violation (including whether Israel or Iran are at fault and if retaliation took place) is largely inconsistent to date.

As of the writing of this report, the integrity of a ceasefire is unclear and fast-changing. There is a very likely chance that the Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. governments perceive a bilateral ceasefire to be mutually beneficial—particularly if the latter two parties realize any strategic successes related to the degradation of Iranian nuclear facilities. As such, there is a likely chance that hostilities will reduce significantly in the coming days. 

However, a likely chance remains that hostilities will resume within the coming weeks, exacerbated by the presence of numerous pro-Iranian parties in the region that have historically perceived Israeli and U.S. assets as viable targets. The Iraq-based Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Yemen-based Houthis, and Hamas have historically conducted aggressive operations under varying degrees of direction from the Iranian government, obfuscating the efficacy of any ceasefire and the strategic intent of the involved parties.

Scope Note

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